A spectacular Bitcoin price surge has advanced to near $260 (Bitfinex) and 1638 CNY (BTC-China). The parabolic advance has left the market wondering about the next move and at the time of writing a bout of profit-taking has set in. The wave seems to be topping out in a familiar ending diagonal, whereby successive smaller waves punch to higher highs.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
A target zone at $258-$260 may be the final destination of an incremental ending diagonal, else – if the market finds the energy for another surge – we may see price run all the way to a target nearer $270. The latter target is a 4.618 Fib extension level, whereas the $258 target is a 3.618 Fib extension level – a more common destination for advancing Bitcoin waves.
This surge higher had happened very quickly and may have gone “too far, too fast”. While we acknowledge the advancing scenario and give it credence, we should also anticipate a scenario whereby the entire wave from $230 to $258/$260 can be retraced. This outcome is illustrated in the following chart:
The 1-day chart shows us the current wave in the larger context.
The future should be viewed not as a fixed outcome that’s destined to happen and capable of being predicted, but as a range of possibilities and, hopefully on the basis of insight into their respective likelihoods, as a probability distribution. – Howard Marks